INDUSTRY SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Overall, we expect advertising and specialty media to grow 7.2 percent from 1999 to 2004, reaching $403.8 billion in 2004. The growth rate represents a slight decline from the 7.5 percent figure achieved during the 1994 to 1999 period. Growth in both advertising and specialty media during the forecast period are expected to outpace growth in the economy. The compound annual growth rate for advertising will remain at 7.8 percent from 1999 to 2004. While most of the advertising categories will experience slight declines in their growth rates, increases for outdoor, radio and online will offset these decreases. The advertising market is expected to reach $242.4 billion in 2004. Specialty media's growth rate will slow down from 7.1 percent in the 1994 to 1999 period to 6.2 percent from 1999 to 2004, mainly because of slowing growth in the direct mail and promotional products categories. Spending on specialty media will reach $161.4 billion in 2004.
Continued strong growth - 8.41CAGR to $2.8 billion - is forecast for national Yellow Pages advertising, spurred by the introduction of directories from non-telephone companies and by increasing use by national advertisers. Outdoor advertising, which rose 9.1nin 1998, is also forecast to thrive, since it is one of the few advertising media in which impressions are increasing and has benefited from consolidation with radio operators. Growth is forecast at 7.9aCAGR to $3.4 billion by 2003.
Overall, spending on specialty media is forecast to grow at a 7.21%CAGR to $149.9 billion by 2003.
Consumer promotion -- point-of-purchase materials and retail displays, premiums, promotional licensing, product sampling, and in-store marketing -- is forecasted to expand at a 4.4% CAGR, reaching $30.1 billion by 2002. The fastest growth category will be product sampling, which has been highly successful in recent years (witness AOL's mailings of free startup discs to potential customers) and which is projected to grow at a 9.4% CAGR to $1.5 billion in 2002. In-store marketing, fueled recently by the rising use of loyalty card programs that track purchases and thus allow marketers to target-market, is projected to grow at an 8.0% CAGR to $1.1 billion by 2002.
Business-to-Business promotion is projected to rise at a 9.4% CAGR to $49.5 billion by 2002, as an expanding economy and increasing share of high-tech products require dealer incentives, and demands for productivity enhancement support the use of employee incentives.
Improved targeting technologies in direct mail will lead companies to spend less per campaign, but to engage in more campaigns. Rising paper prices and a scheduled modest postal-rate increase will boost spending. A 6.2% CAGR to $49.9 billion in 2002 is projected.
Sponsorship spending will be stimulated by Olympic sponsorships in both Olympic and non-Olympic years, increasing at a 12.0% CAGR to $10.4 billion in 2002, up from $5.9 billion in 1997.
Overall, spending on specialty media is forecast to grow at a 7.2% CAGR to $139.9 billion by 2002.
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